As one of the three pillars of the semiconductor industry, there is no need to say the importance of storage chips. It is widely used in many fields such as consumer electronics, smart terminals, and data centers.
However, from the perspective of market level, after experiencing the hot demand of the semiconductor industry in the first two years, the storage market gradually cooled. Beginning in 2022, especially since the second half of the year, the downward trend of the storage chip market has become more and more obvious. The rapid reversal supply and demand relationship and the demand for straight -line decline have caught the entire supply chain by surprise.
Until 2023, the semiconductor market still faced downward pressure. In order to alleviate inventory, the original storage chip has successively implemented production reduction and price reduction strategies. In the past year, the price of storage chips has continued to decline, and the higher point is almost cut.
After experiencing a long downward cycle of the industry, a series of reversal signs such as decreased inventory, long order, and original price increases have recently released a series of reversal. More and more obvious, the turning point of the storage chip industry is approaching.
In addition, the rise of multiple changes in the storage chip sector also proves that the storage market seems to be ushered in a turnaround.
What recovery signals are released?
The core of storage market prosperity depends on inventory and market demand, that is, supply and demand relationship.
From the perspective of demand, mobile phones, servers, and PCs are the three major terminal applications of storage. In the fourth quarter of 2022, 39%, 34%, 13%, and 37%, 28%, and 18%of NAND FLASH of DRAM terminal applications, respectively. Essence New capacity markets such as cars and AI servers have developed rapidly, but in the short term, the basic disk is smaller, and it depends on long -term expectations.
Consumer electronics "ice break"
Recently, the supply chain has gradually released PCs and the terminal demand of mobile phones. There are signs of getting out of the valley. Even though the demand is rising slowly, the worst time hopes that it has passed.
Recently, it is reported that Meteor Lake, the new generation of Intel's new -generation consumer laptop platform, is expected to be released in the fourth quarter, and the DRAM equipped is upgraded from the current mainstream DDR4 to DDR5. As Intel New Platform announced that the DDR5 era comes, it means that the future AI computing data has increased significantly. The DDR5 DRAM with a higher transmission speed and the capacity of the more capacity is expected to become the new mainstream of PC, laptop and servers.
In this regard, the three giants of Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix global DRAM have started to increase the production capacity of DDR5 in the fourth quarter, and gradually replace the current mainstream DDR4 to welcome the upcoming DDR5 business opportunities.
Among them, Samsung's 32GB DDR5 planned for the 12 -nanometer process in Samsung, in the same packaging size, the capacity is expected to double, which means that on the same DRAM module in the future, the capacity that can be equipped is expected to increase sharply; Micron is expected to increase in the first half next year next year.
The 32GB single -piece DRAM chip of the annual sprint 1β process will make the DRAM module of the next 128GB specifications in the future is expected to be successful; SK Hynix will sprint the market with the 1β process DDR5.
The recovery of the laptop market may drive the prosperity of consumer electronics products of the remaining categories, so as to drive the growth of the storage chip market by multiple demand.
Qunlian said that the demand for modules and smartphone customers from the mainland has increased, and some customers have even accepted 30%to 35%of prices.
After a long inventory digestion of smartphones and consumer electronics manufacturers, some parts and chip inventory have begun to have stocking demand. Some slow -moving manufacturers have found that they can't buy cheap chips!
Some supply chain people said that in the past few months, the procurement of mobile phone brand and storage module factories has taken turns to talk about the price of NAND Flash in South Korea. Signed a contract before July, but now we can only accept the price increase.
It is reported that OPPO and VIVO storage gaps are relatively tight. Xiaomi and Chuanyin have ensured the supply of NAND Flash from other channels. This can also be seen that this wave of NAND FLASH price increase is a big action for a long time after the upstream original factory endured the original factory. Raise. In addition, some module factories with a keen sense of smell have secretly raised the inventory water level, and bought some low -cost chips to stock up the price.
AI with strong goods
Since the beginning of this year, the wave of AI has catalyzed the demand for the storage industry to a certain extent. The demand for new HBM storage demand by the AI server has increased rapidly, and the price has also risen.
HBM "Salvation" storage chip giant financial report has also become the highlight of the moment. Samsung Electronics Storage Business has a narrow losses in the DS department in the DS department. SK Hynix sales exceeded analysts expectations. Micron also said that the demand for AI drivers for AI servers has become a strong support for the company's business.
The expansion of the generation AI market has quickly pushed the demand for AI server memory. According to Micron's calculation, the capacity demand for the AI server for DRAM and NAND is 8 times and 3 times the traditional servers. Multiple growth.
The AI server not only brings HBM, but also makes DDR5 demand rising rapidly, inspiring manufacturers to increase shipments rapidly. Based on the above trend, the sales of high -end storage products such as HBM3, DDR5 and NAND have begun to increase.
Under the advancement of the AI wave, HBM demand has risen. Although reducing spending this year is a highlight, the investment giants' investment in HBM is still quite willing. According to the TrendForce survey, the original storage factory tried to increase the HBM production capacity by increasing the TSV production line under the self -developed orders of cloud service manufacturers such as Nvidia, AMD, and Microsoft and Amazon. Judging from the current original factory planning, it is estimated that the number of HBM supply in 2024 will increase by 105%. Previously, TrendForce predicted that HBM demand in 2023 increased by 58%year -on -year, and it was expected to increase by about 30%in 2024.
Micron stated in the third quarterly report that the rapidly growing artificial intelligence field's demand for storage chips has increased the expectations of investors' future revenue. With the acceleration of the de -inventory of consumer electronics, the revenue contribution of traditional products will be underneath. Half a year of rising, the industry is currently believed to have recovered in the second half of 2023.
SK Hynix also said when the recent memory market conditions were interpreted at the performance briefing: "The demand for memory for AI will be strong in the second half of this year, and the production reduction effect of semiconductor memory companies may gradually be obvious."
South Asiake said that the company has emerged in some application fields. Three applications such as consumer electronics, television, and the Internet of Things need to warm up. "" ".
From the perspective of the comprehensive demand side, smartphones and PC marginal improvements, terminal inventory basically clear, new products in the future, capacity upgrades have improved demand for improvement; in terms of server, AI computing power tighten HBM demand. The general server CPU upgrade promotes DDR5 penetration, and it is expected that the demand in the second half of the year is expected to accelerate improvement.
In addition, the automotive storage market has developed rapidly. With the continuous advancement of automotive electrification, intelligence, and networking, the demand for vehicle -carrier memory is driven. According to the Yole report, in 2021, the size of the automobile memory market reached 4.3 billion US dollars. It is expected that the average annual compound growth rate from 2021 to 2027 was 20%, exceeding the growth rate of the memory market and the automotive semiconductor market in the same period.
In addition, applications related to high -speed storage, high reliability, and data security will also have great development potential, such as 5G base stations, Internet of Things, cloud computing, big data, smart factories, wearable devices and other emerging applications. Power consumption, safety, transmission rate, volume and cost will have higher requirements.
Although these segmented applications cannot directly change the general trend of the stored chip market, its generous profit margin and incremental increase will also benefit storage chip manufacturers to a certain extent, and long -term demand is worthy of attention.
Store the original factory to reduce production
The cold wind of the storage industry has been whistling for a long time, and it is inseparable from suppliers' control of production capacity.
Since the fourth quarter of last year, storage chip manufacturers have continued to adjust the imbalance of market supply and demand by shrinking production capacity. From 3-4 months according to the normal production cycle, the production reduction action of various manufacturers will gradually appear after half a year. It is expected that the supply will have obvious shrinkage and reduction effects will be accelerated in Q2 and Q3.
According to the analysis of the flash memory market, under the storage manufacturer's firm production reduction and restraint of low -cost supply, the overall storage market shows the "L" type, and the inventory dewlocular situation is expected to further improve.
As global large manufacturers adjust the production capacity and the motion of production lines, inventory has begun to call back. It is understood that at the beginning of this year, Samsung's NAND inventory water level exceeded 20 weeks, which has soared to 28 weeks, but it has recently dropped to 18 weeks. The target of NAND inventory at the end of the year (6-8 weeks).
In view of the low base period in 2023 and the price of some memory products to a relatively low point, DRAM and NAND FLASH demand levels in 2024 were 13.0% and 16.0%, respectively. Although the demand level has rebounded, in 2024, if the inventory is to be effectively removed and returned to the balance of supply and demand, the focus is still on suppliers to control the capacity of production capacity. Once the supply of the supplier is properly controlled, the average price of the storage chip has a chance to rebound.
According to the Meiguang FY23Q3 method, its plan will further reduce the operating rate of DRAM and NAND wafers to nearly 30%. It is expected that production reduction will last until 2024. This may also correspond to Samsung, SK Hynix and other storage plants FY23Q2 crystal crystal Round start rate.
Under the impact of large manufacturers, the supply of the storage market will continue to reduce the needs of current customers' sufficient libraries and downstream sluggish demand, and ultimately drive the supply and demand relationship to balance.
As the inventory of terminal customers and channel vendors gradually alleviates, storage manufacturers have refused to reduce prices to sell or even ask the quotation to increase frequently. At present, the marginal price of some products has been seen.
Storage chip, price increase
In accordance with the law of the storage chip price out of the bottom, the next step after reducing production is naturally price increase. The original financial reports of the major storage chips were all frightened in the first half of the year, and the situation in the second half of the year would definitely want to get back the "serving right".
From the perspective of the terminal market feedback, as the price of the storage chip has almost reached the cost price of many originals, several major storage chips have taken measures some time ago to refuse to reduce the price of chips. DRAM and NAND Flash will no longer accept inquiries below the current market.
From Q2 this year, a number of suppliers have issued a bottoming signal. First of all, Samsung and Meiguo issued notifications to the dealers, no longer receiving DRAM and NAND Flash at low prices, and refused to accept quotations below April. In May, it was reported that the flash memory of the Yangtze River storage factory officially started the price increase of 3-5%, and Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are considering raising the quotation. In late June, only Samsung among the supplier is willing to conduct CSSD in advance. The dealer hopes that the supplier will concessions but all refuse.
Nomura Securities has released the expectations of the price increase of storage chips: In the third quarter, the main storage chip prices have stabilized or rising, and higher-priced HBM, DDR5 and LPDDR5X combinations have increased, making the average unit price of storage chips is expected to increase by 5%-10%.
In addition, according to DIGITIME reports, the domestic NAND Flash module factory has recently suspended offer and receiving orders, which will increase the original price of the chip by 8%-10%. It is expected that the price of NAND FLASH is expected to gradually rise to the manufacturing cost line.
Tianfeng International Analyst Guo Mingzheng also posted a few days ago that after Samsung's price increase in August, Micron has also increased the price of about 10%of the NAND Flash wafer contract price in September, which will help improve Micron's profit in the second half of the year.
In fact, before that, Samsung had ordered the suspension of the sixth-generation V-NAND mature process product offer, and those below $ 1.6 stopped shipping. Two major manufacturers have confirmed privately and stated that "the previous product of 1.45-1.48 was low in price, and it would not appear again in the future."
Recently, it was learned from the supply chain that the lowest price of 512GB storage particles was directly pulled directly at $ 1.85 from $ 1.4, and the spot price even shouted to $ 2. In less than a month, the spot price rebounded nearly 40%. At present, almost all storage chip suppliers are interested in follow -up, including the Yangtze River Storage will also send a letter to customers again in the near future to increase the price.
The price increase of storage particles means a slowdown in the decline, and the market price recovery is expected to be faster than expected.
In addition to the price of storage chips, the main control chip also has a trend of price increase. Pan Jiancheng, CEO of Qunlian, said that recently some NAND main control chip supply shortages are mainly industrial products or high -end applications, such as UFS and PCIe products, which are the signals of market rebound. Qunlian expects PCIE 4.0 DRAM-LSS without cache main control chip, PCIE 5.0 DRAM-LSS main control chip, which is most likely to seize the next wave of recovery opportunities.
According to the latest report from the Taiwan Economic Daily quoted the US market research agency, suppliers of stored chip suppliers such as Micron and Western data believe that the price of product prices has fallen to the end, and the model of batch transactions at a discount price will start to raise prices. The survey agency predicts that the decline in the price of storage chips from Q3 will narrow, and the price of some product contracts is likely to rise from Q4. Different product lines are different. It is expected to recover in full time next year.
Generally speaking, in the context of accelerating the storage market, the demand for terminal stocking has increased quarter by quarter, adding the signs of the improvement of manufacturers to reduce production and reduce capital expenditure, and the signs of improvement of the supply and demand of storage chips accelerated.
However, from the perspective of the application market, the key is that the terminal demand in markets such as mobile phones, consumer electronics, and PCs can gradually climb as expected. There is no other large negative message to impact. cycle.
Store the downward cycle, the end is coming
From the perspective of the historical cycle dimension, the storage industry cycle is about 3-4 years. The cycle starts from Q1 in 2020. It has seen the price in Q1 in 2022. At present, the price reduction has been reduced in 6 consecutive quarters.
At the same time, as the upstream storage factories have sacrificed stable and reduced production measures, the storage industry has begun to appear in a good trend one after another. A number of storage head manufacturers have said that the industry has begun to build a bottom.
As an absolute leader in the storage industry, South Korea has decreased by 21%year -on -year in semiconductor exports and decreased for 13 consecutive months, but a slight increase of 15%month -on -month. Following the bottom season, the improvement momentum continued and showed a trend.
This data also shows that the worst moment of storage chips has passed, and the industry turning point has begun to appear.
As Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron said in the financial report, driven by the gradual growth of sales, the demand for the storage chip Q2 has been sluggish, and then gradually recovered in the second half of the year, or it will go out of the trough later this year. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra's law at the end of June has also released the memory trough, and it is currently waiting for the next prosperous recovery cycle.
The storage is empty, and the semiconductor industry will accelerate the recovery
Storage chips are the most standardized market for semiconductor, with significant periodic performance and strong market elasticity. The industry's prosperity is affected by supply and demand, showing a strong periodicity, which is regarded as semiconductor production.The vane of the industry cycle.
Judging from the above factors such as comprehensive supply and demand relationships, prices, inventory, etc., the bottom of the storage cycle has arrived. At the same time, considering that the storage giant has firmly lost the total amount of supply of capital expenses, reduced production in stock, and controls the oversupply of the market under this year. And stabilizing downstream demand, AIGC promotes data center construction, automobile intelligence and rapid advancement, and the slow recovery of consumer electronics will bring a lot of memory demand. The storage market demand is expected to accelerate recovery.
According to historical data performance, semiconductors and storage markets are cyclical, but the overall volatility of the storage industry is relatively large and has strong elasticity. When the overall industry is in the downlink cycle, the storage market will often be impacted. If it is in the uplink cycle of continuous recovery from the trough, the storage chip market will also benefit more.
Therefore, the storage chip has begun to reverse from the out of sharpness to the market, and the appearance of its inflection point may also imply that the semiconductor industry will accelerate recovery.
According to data from the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) recently, in July 2023, the global semiconductor industry sales totaled 43.2 billion US dollars, an increase of 2.3%from the previous month.